Shifting Currency Ties: Ukraine's Potential Move to Euro
The National Bank of Ukraine is considering the possibility of shifting its currency policy from a dollar orientation to tying the hryvnia to the euro.
This was reported by Reuters.
Andriy Pyshny, the head of the NBU, cited several reasons for this potential change: closer cooperation with the European Union, instability in global markets, and the possible division of global trade.
He added that "this process is complex and requires thorough preparation".
Currently, the dollar remains the primary currency for NBU's interventions, but the share of euro transactions is "moderately increasing" in most market segments.
Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, the NBU has pegged the exchange rate at around 29 UAH per dollar, and as of October 2023, has moved to a managed exchange rate system focused on the dollar.
Ukraine expects to join the European Union by 2030. Similarly, Moldova has already switched to the euro as its reference currency this year.
The NBU forecasts that due to euro integration and gradual recovery, the economy will grow by 3.7–3.9% over the next two years. However, future prospects depend on the war's developments.
"A swift end to the war would undoubtedly be a positive scenario for the economy, provided it includes security guarantees for Ukraine," Pyshny noted. He also emphasized that positive effects "may not manifest immediately".
This year, Ukraine expects to receive $55 billion in foreign aid. In 2026, according to Pyshny, $17 billion is anticipated, and in 2027 — $15 billion.
