Economic Growth Forecast for Ukraine Until 2028
The Ukrainian government has approved new forecasts for the country's economic and social development through 2028, which include two potential scenarios.
This information is included in resolution No. 946 dated August 6, 2025.
According to the first scenario, the real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.5% next year, with inflation at 8.6%. The second scenario predicts a GDP growth of 2.4% and an inflation rate of 9.9%.
The optimistic scenario suggests a GDP increase to 5% in 2027 and 5.7% in 2028, with a decrease in inflation to 7.1% and 5.6%, respectively.
The less optimistic scenario indicates a GDP growth of 4.7% in 2027 and 4.5% in 2028, while inflation is projected to decrease to 9.7% and 7.5%.
According to the first scenario, there will be 13 million employed individuals aged 15-70 next year, with this number expected to rise to 13.2 million in two years, while the second scenario shows these figures to be 0.2 million lower.
In the first scenario, the unemployment rate is projected to increase from 12.9% in 2026 to 13.3% in 2027, before declining to 12.8% in 2028. The second scenario anticipates a gradual increase in unemployment from 12.6% next year to 13.1% in two years.
The average nominal salary, adjusted for inflation, is expected to rise by 6.5-8.9% annually in the first scenario, while in the second scenario, it will increase by 4.6-5.1%.
The resolution does not specify which scenario is considered the baseline for preparing the state budget for 2026.
